The Perfect Storm: Challenges Facing Four-Year Colleges and Universities in 2026 and Beyond
by Dr. Ron A. Rhoades, JD, CFP®
The autumn leaves swirled outside Professor Bear’s office window as he prepared for what would be an unusually somber discussion. Gone was his trademark bear costume – this conversation called for the gravitas of his best tweed jacket with the leather elbow patches.
“Come in, come in,” he called as four familiar faces appeared at his door. James shuffled in first, followed by Maria – who was already typing something on her phone – then Malik and Isara.
“Professor Bear,” Malik said cautiously, “your email mentioned something about ‘existential challenges’ facing higher education. That sounds… ominous.”
“Ominous, yes. But not hopeless,” replied Professor Bear, gesturing toward the comfortable chairs arranged in a circle. “I’ve invited a special guest to join us today. Provost Elena Moreno has graciously agreed to share her perspective on what universities are facing – and what they’re doing about it.”
The door opened again, and a formidable woman in her late fifties entered. Provost Moreno’s reputation preceded her – she had led two universities through financial crises before coming to this university. Her silver-streaked hair was pulled back severely, but her eyes held a warmth that softened her commanding presence.
“Students,” she said, taking a seat, “what I’m about to share with you is not meant to frighten you. It’s meant to prepare you. Higher education is entering a period of transformation unlike anything we’ve seen in a century.”
Maria finally put down her phone. Even James, who rarely made eye contact, was watching the Provost intently.
The Demographic Cliff: Fewer Students, Fewer Options
Professor Bear pulled up a chart on his laptop. “Let’s start with the numbers, because in higher education, numbers matter more than many realize.
“According to the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE), 2025 represents a peak year for high school graduates, with approximately 3.9 million students completing secondary education. What comes next, however, tells a very different story. By 2041, the number of high school graduates is projected to decline by 13% nationally, with some regions experiencing far more severe contractions (WICHE, 2024).”
“13% doesn’t sound catastrophic,” James offered quietly.
Provost Moreno shook her head. “It’s not evenly distributed, James. Illinois will see a 32 percent decline. California, 29 percent. New York, 27 percent. The Northeast and Midwest are looking at enrollment shortfalls that will make current challenges seem quaint by comparison.
“The implications are already visible in the institutional landscape. Since 2016, more than 120 colleges and universities have closed, merged, or announced plans to do so (Higher Ed Dive, 2024). The pace has accelerated – in 2024 alone, an average of one college per week announced closure or merger plans. Deloitte’s 2024 Forum on the New Era of Higher Education noted that more than 40 colleges have closed since 2020, with at least 20 in 2024 alone.”
Isara raised her hand, her characteristic reserve momentarily abandoned. “Professor, if this is happening now, when enrollment is still relatively high, what happens when the demographic cliff really hits?”
“That, Isara, is the question keeping every university president awake at night.”
The Rise of Alternatives: Trade Schools and the Skills Gap
“The competition for students doesn’t come only from demographic decline,” Professor Bear commented. “It comes from a fundamental shift in how young people – and their parents – view the path to economic security.
“In 2024, 40 percent of high school graduates chose trade school over traditional four-year programs, up from 32 percent in 2019 (National Student Clearinghouse, 2024). Vocational programs saw enrollment increases of 16 percent between 2022 and 2023 alone.”
“My cousin became a wind turbine technician,” Malik interjected. “He’s making over $100,000 a year, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics says demand for that job is growing 50 percent over the next decade.”
Provost Moreno nodded. “And he has no student debt, correct?”
“Zero.”
“The numbers tell a compelling story,” replied Provost Moreno. “The United States faces a projected shortage of 6 million skilled workers compared to available jobs between 2025 and 2032 (McKinsey Global Institute, 2023). These are jobs in construction, healthcare, advanced manufacturing, and infrastructure – jobs that often don’t require a four-year degree but do require specific technical training.”
Maria looked up from her phone – where, presumably, she had been researching rather than posting. “Are we competing with trade schools for students?”
“Not competing,” Professor Bear said thoughtfully. “Or rather, not only competing. We’re being forced to justify our value proposition in ways we haven’t had to for decades.”
A Brief Interlude: The Pressure from All Sides
Professor Bear reached for his coffee cup – which, naturally, had a bear on it – and took a long sip. “Before we continue, I should mention that faculty are facing pressure from multiple directions simultaneously. On one side, we have legislators questioning why students can’t learn physics faster. On the other, we have parents wondering why we’re not teaching ‘practical skills.’ And in the middle, we have students asking whether the quadratic formula will help them get a job at Google.”
“Will it?” James asked.
“The quadratic formula? Probably not directly. But the problem-solving skills you develop while learning it? Absolutely. Although,” he added with a wry smile, “try explaining that to a state legislator who’s convinced we’re wasting taxpayer money teaching ‘woke physics.’“
Provost Moreno nearly spat out her own coffee. “’Woke physics?’ Please tell me that’s not a real phrase someone used.”
“I wish I could. The email is framed on my wall as a reminder that we live in interesting times.”
Shifting Attitudes: The Erosion of Public Trust
“The shifting attitudes toward higher education represent perhaps the most troubling trend for university administrators,” continued Professor Bear. “According to Gallup’s 2025 polling data, only 35 percent of Americans now consider a college education ‘very important’ – a dramatic decline from 75 percent in 2010. Public confidence in higher education has dropped 20 percentage points since 2015, with only 36 percent expressing confidence in colleges and universities.
“When asked about their concerns, respondents pointed to several factors. Forty-one percent cited concerns about political bias or ‘indoctrination,’ 37 percent pointed to poor job outcomes relative to cost, and 28 percent cited affordability concerns (Gallup, 2025).”
“This is the perception problem,” Provost Moreno said. “Whether these perceptions are accurate or not – and some are, some aren’t – they affect enrollment, political support, and funding. We can’t simply ignore them.”
The Funding Squeeze: State and Federal Retrenchment
“The financial pressures on higher education are intensifying from multiple directions, as well,” Provost Moreno continued. “At the state level, 12 states saw inflation-adjusted funding declines between fiscal years 2020 and 2025, with Arkansas experiencing an 11 percent cut, Iowa 10 percent, and Indiana 8 percent. An additional 15 states proposed or enacted further cuts in 2025.
“At the federal level, federal support for higher education – particularly research, Pell Grants, and student loans – has diminished over the past year.”
Isara, ever the accounting major, was doing mental calculations. “How do universities survive this?”
“Many won’t,” Provost Moreno said flatly. “Not as they currently exist. The ones that survive will be those that adapt – quickly and dramatically.”
Digital Disruption: MOOCs, Corporate Credentials, and Online Competition
“What about the online competition? There’s so many ways to get certificates online…” asked James.
“The competitive landscape extends far beyond traditional institutions,” Professor Bear commented. “The global MOOC (Massive Open Online Course) market reached $26 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to $165 billion by 2030 – a compound annual growth rate of 39.2 percent (Global MOOC Market Report, 2024). More than 220 million learners worldwide are now enrolled in MOOC programs, up from 120 million in 2020.
“Perhaps more significantly, 35 percent of hiring managers now accept MOOC certifications as alternatives to traditional degrees for many positions. Corporate credential programs from Google, IBM, Amazon, and Microsoft are gaining acceptance in the job market, often at a fraction of the cost of a traditional degree.”
Maria was already researching. “The Google IT Support Professional Certificate takes six months and costs under $300. A computer science degree takes four years and costs…”
“We get the point,” Malik said. “But surely there’s value in the full educational experience that these programs can’t provide?”
“There is,” Professor Bear affirmed. “The question is whether we’re communicating that value effectively, and whether students – burdened with debt and anxious about job prospects – can afford to take the long view.”
The AI Revolution: Disruption on Multiple Fronts
“Artificial intelligence represents perhaps the most transformative force affecting higher education – and not always in positive ways,” Provost Moreno said. “In 2024, 78 percent of organizations reported using AI in at least one business function, up from 55 percent just one year prior (McKinsey AI Survey, 2024).
“The impact on entry-level white-collar jobs has been swift and severe. Entry-level hiring at the 15 largest technology firms fell by 25 percent between 2023 and 2024. More alarmingly, 66 percent of enterprises indicated plans to further reduce entry-level hiring as AI capabilities expand. Programmer employment specifically declined by 27.5 percent between 2023 and 2025.
“The result is a deteriorating job market for recent graduates. Only 30 percent of 2025 graduates secured full-time employment in their field within six months of graduation, down from 41 percent in 2024. Unemployment for bachelor’s degree holders aged 20-24 has risen from 5.2 percent in 2018-2019 to 6.2 percent in 2025. Meanwhile, 77 percent of new AI-related jobs require master’s degrees or higher.”
James looked genuinely distressed. “So AI is taking the jobs we’re training for?”
“It’s more nuanced than that,” Professor Bear replied. “AI is changing the nature of work. Some jobs are disappearing, yes. But new roles are emerging. The challenge for education is to prepare students for jobs that may not exist yet, using technologies that haven’t been invented, to solve problems we don’t yet know are problems.”
Academic Integrity in the Age of AI
“Is that why we’re seeing new policies from the university, too?” asked Malik.
“The classroom faces its own AI-related challenges,” Provost Moreno began. “According to recent surveys, 90 percent of students are aware of ChatGPT, and 89 percent have used it for homework in some capacity. Fifty-three percent have used it for essay writing, and 48 percent for exam preparation or completion.
“The impact on academic integrity has been dramatic. AI-related misconduct now accounts for 60-64 percent of all cheating cases globally. In the United Kingdom, universities reported nearly 7,000 cases of AI-related cheating in the 2023-24 academic year – a threefold increase from the previous year. Student discipline rates for AI misconduct increased from 48 percent in 2022-23 to 64 percent in 2024-25.
Perhaps most troubling, 59 percent of students themselves worry that AI use is reducing their critical thinking skills.”
Malik shifted uncomfortably. “I’ve seen it in study groups. People don’t want to work through problems anymore. They just ask ChatGPT.”
“And then they wonder why they can’t pass exams where AI isn’t available,” Provost Moreno added. “This is one of the most challenging pedagogical problems we’ve ever faced.”
AI Tutors: Promise, Peril, and the Need for Guardrails
“But can’t AI help us learn better?” asked Isara. “Like, if I’m struggling to learn a formula, couldn’t it show me different ways?”
“That would be AI tutoring,” Professor Bear replied. “The AI tutoring market is projected to grow from $3.55 billion in 2025 to $6.45 billion by 2030. Proponents cite impressive statistics: 72 percent of students report greater engagement with AI tutors, 68 percent of teachers say automated grading reduces their stress, and 60 percent of schools report cost savings from AI implementation.
“However, recent research reveals a critical caveat: AI tutoring without proper guardrails can actually harm learning. A 2024 study from the University of Pennsylvania involving nearly 1,000 high school math students found that students with unrestricted access to ChatGPT performed 48 percent better during practice sessions – but then scored 17 percent worse than their peers on subsequent closed-book exams (Bastani et al., 2024). The researchers discovered that a third of student interactions with the AI consisted of variations of ‘What is the answer?’”
“So AI can make you feel like you’re learning while actually preventing learning?” Isara asked, concern evident in her voice.
“Exactly,” Professor Bear replied. “It’s the cognitive offloading problem. When AI does the thinking for you, your brain doesn’t do the work needed to form lasting neural connections.”
“The same study, however, offered hope,” interjected Provost Moreno. “A third group of students received access to an AI tutor with carefully designed guardrails – one that provided hints and guidance rather than direct answers, incorporated teacher input on common mistakes, and was programmed to prompt deeper thinking rather than simply solving problems. These students scored 127 percent higher than the control group on practice problems and performed just as well on subsequent exams.”
“The implications are profound,” continued Professor Bear. “AI tutors need robust guardrails governing what data they access, how they respond to student queries, and – critically – preventing students from circumventing the learning process by demanding direct answers. This means AI systems must be designed to recognize and redirect shortcut-seeking behavior, maintain logs of student interactions for instructor review, and be integrated into a broader pedagogical framework rather than deployed as standalone solutions.”
Provost Moreno leaned forward. “This is why we’re piloting AI tutoring only in controlled classroom environments initially, with teaching assistants present to guide students. The technology alone isn’t enough – it needs human oversight and instructional design that prevents cognitive offloading.
“This approach naturally leads to flipped classroom models, where AI tutors assist with out-of-class preparation under structured conditions, while in-class time focuses on application, discussion, and deeper engagement under instructor supervision. Some institutions are finding that AI tutors work best when students complete AI-guided preparation before class, then spend increased classroom time working through problems with teaching assistants who can identify when students are shortcutting rather than learning.”
Another Brief Interlude: The Motorcycle Metaphor
Professor Bear stood and stretched, moving to look out the window. “Let me share an analogy that’s been on my mind. Learning with unrestricted AI is a bit like training for a marathon on a motorcycle.”
Maria looked confused. “You can’t train for a marathon on a motorcycle.”
“Exactly. You can cover the distance. You can learn the route. You might even feel like you’re preparing. But when race day comes and you have to run on your own legs, you’ll collapse at mile two.”
“The AI is the motorcycle?” Malik asked.
“Unrestricted AI is the motorcycle. Properly designed AI tutoring is more like a coach running alongside you – challenging you, encouraging you, but making sure you’re the one doing the work.”
Provost Moreno nodded approvingly. “I’m stealing that metaphor for the next board meeting.”
“Feel free. Just cite your source.” Professor Bear winked. “After all, we do care about academic integrity.”
The Internal Challenge: Faculty Resistance and Governance
“The challenges facing higher education aren’t solely external,” sighed Provost Moreno. “Internal resistance to change poses significant obstacles to institutional adaptation.
“Brian Rosenberg, former president of Macalester College and author of ‘Whatever It Is, I’m Against It: Resistance to Change in Higher Education,’ argues that shared governance – the system by which faculty participate in institutional decision-making – has become “shared intransigence” in many institutions (Rosenberg, 2024). The structure that was designed to ensure thoughtful deliberation often becomes a mechanism for blocking necessary change.
“The group at any college that probably has the least incentive to change things, for perfectly understandable and human reasons, are the tenured faculty,” Rosenberg observes. Research on organizational change consistently suggests that smaller groups make more innovative decisions than large committees designed to maximize participation.”
“Is that why everything moves so slowly?” Maria asked.
Provost Moreno shrugged. “Partly. Universities are designed for stability, not agility. That was a feature when higher education was stable. It’s becoming a bug as the environment changes faster than our governance structures can respond.”
“The California Community Colleges’ competency-based education pilot offers a cautionary example,” stated Professor Bear. “Only one of eight participating colleges met implementation deadlines, with faculty resistance cited as a primary factor. Meanwhile, one in seven faculty members nationally reports being disciplined or threatened for their teaching or speech, creating an environment where taking pedagogical risks feels professionally dangerous.”
The Numbers Game: Understanding University Economics
Professor Bear returned to his seat and pulled up a spreadsheet. “Before we discuss solutions, you need to understand the numbers game of higher education. Universities are extraordinarily complex economic enterprises, and their financial sustainability depends on factors that most students – and many faculty – never see.
“Academic costs typically account for over 60 percent of institutional expenses. The primary drivers are faculty salaries and benefits, facility maintenance, and administrative overhead. When enrollment declines, revenues fall but costs remain largely fixed. A university can’t simply lay off tenured faculty or abandon buildings when enrollment drops 10 percent.”
“Universities have the same problem as airlines?” Malik asked. “High fixed costs that don’t scale down easily?”
“Exactly,” Provost Moreno confirmed. “Except we can’t consolidate routes or ground planes. We have tenure commitments, multi-year contracts, bonded debt on buildings, and accreditation requirements that dictate minimum staffing levels.”
Traditional Efficiency Strategies: Benefits and Limitations
“Faced with financial pressure,” Provost Moreno continued, “universities have historically pursued several efficiency strategies, each with significant trade-offs.”
Professor Bear moved to the whiteboard and listed them as Provost Moreno talked.
1 – Greater Use of Adjunct Professors
Adjunct professors now comprise approximately 70% of instructional faculty, teaching more than half of all college courses – up from about 20% in the early 1980s. The financial logic is straightforward: adjunct faculty earn a median of $3,700 per course, compared to $150,000 or more annually for tenured professors. Over one in four adjuncts earn below the poverty level for a family of four, and most lack health insurance – meaning they must work multiple jobs to earn a living wage.
James, studying to become a teacher himself, looked troubled. “Is that what I have to look forward to?”
Provost Moreno was direct. “It depends on the field and institution. K-12 teaching has different dynamics. But yes, in higher education, the traditional path to a tenured professorship has become extraordinarily narrow. While the benefits for universities are real – flexibility in staffing, lower costs, and access to real-world practitioners – the limitations are equally significant. Research suggests that heavy reliance on adjunct faculty correlates with lower student retention, persistence, and graduation rates. Adjuncts often lack office space for student meetings, aren’t compensated for advising or mentorship, and may not be available between semesters when students need support. The “de-professionalization” of faculty work means students lose access to the integrated teaching-research-mentorship model that characterizes high-quality undergraduate education.
“As Gray DI’s cost reduction analysis notes: ‘The most expensive faculty member is usually not the one with the highest salary; it is the one that causes the most students to drop out of your college. Each drop-out costs you tens of thousands of dollars in future tuition.’”
2 – Larger Class Sizes
Another strategy is increasing class sizes. The economic logic is compelling: if one professor can teach 100 students instead of 30, the cost per student drops dramatically. However, research presents a nuanced picture: a 2024 study using data from the University of Stavanger found that increased class sizes correlated with lower average examination scores, though the effect diminished at higher course levels (Abrahamsen, Moen, & Asche, 2024). Large classes are associated with student feelings of isolation and anonymity, which can lead to decreased motivation and retention.
However, some pedagogical approaches can mitigate these effects. Team-based learning (TBL), for instance, was specifically designed to transform large lecture halls into interactive spaces. Research suggests that properly implemented TBL can maintain learning outcomes even as class sizes increase, though this requires significant investment in course redesign and instructor training.
“Let me understand this fully. It’s not just about the number of students in the room,” Isara observed. “It’s about how the class is taught.”
“Exactly,” Professor Bear agreed. “Which brings us to what may be the most powerful – and most underutilized – efficiency lever in higher education.”
Pedagogical Innovation: The Overlooked Solution
Professor Bear began pacing – a sure sign he was about to make an important point. “What if I told you that the most effective way to improve both quality and efficiency in higher education isn’t hiring more adjuncts or building bigger lecture halls? What if the answer is fundamentally rethinking how we teach?”
All four students looked at him.
The Flipped Classroom Revolution
“The flipped classroom model inverts traditional instruction: students engage with content before class through videos, readings, and AI-guided preparation, then use class time for application, discussion, and problem-solving,” Professor Bear continued. “Research consistently shows positive outcomes. A 2024 bibliometric analysis found that flipped classrooms improve students’ course learning and promote higher-order ability acquisition, while enabling more effective formative evaluation (Zhang et al., 2024).
“Systematic reviews of flipped classroom implementations identify several key success factors: video creation tools that allow customization, learning management systems that track engagement, and in-class activities that require application rather than passive listening. The approach shows particular promise in accounting, management, and science courses where problem-solving skills are central.”
“But doesn’t that require students to actually do the work before class?” Maria asked. “That’s… not always what happens.”
Professor Bear smiled. “Ah, but that’s where pedagogical design matters. The flipped classroom isn’t just about moving lectures online. It’s about creating accountability structures, engagement measures, and in-class activities that reward preparation and penalize shortcuts.”
1 – Redesigning Textbooks for Active Learning
“Traditional textbooks present information for passive consumption,” Provost Moreno began. “Evidence-based textbook design takes a radically different approach, incorporating:
- Feynman boxes that require students to explain concepts in their own words, forcing elaborative interrogation and identifying knowledge gaps
- Handwritten annotation spaces that leverage research showing handwriting enhances retention compared to typing
- Retrieval practice prompts that require students to recall information rather than simply re-read it
- Micro-pause indicators suggesting 8-12 second breaks for breathing and neural replay
- Reflection prompts connecting concepts to students’ personal lives and experiences
“The goal is to design textbooks that function as workbooks – tools for active engagement rather than passive reading. When combined with AI tutors that provide Socratic questioning rather than answers, these materials can support deep learning while reducing the need for repetitive in-class instruction.”
2 – Competency-Based and Mastery Learning
“But wouldn’t that mean that each student goes through the workbook at a different pace?” asked James. “I know some of my classmates tend to read faster than I do.”
“Traditional education uses time as a constant and learning as a variable – everyone takes the same course for the same duration, regardless of individual mastery. Competency-based education (CBE) inverts this: learning is the constant, and time is the variable,” explained Professor Bear.
“As Paul LeBlanc, president of Southern New Hampshire University, observes: ‘In most higher education, time is the constant and learning is the variable. In competency-based education, learning is the constant, and time is the variable.’
“Mastery learning requires students to demonstrate competence before advancing. This approach, combined with AI-enabled adaptive learning systems, allows students to move quickly through material they understand while spending more time on areas where they struggle. Research shows that mastery learning produces significant improvements in both achievement and retention.”
Isara’s eyes lit up. “So, students who work harder could graduate faster?”
“Or students who need more time could get it without falling behind permanently,” Professor Bear added. “The system accommodates both.”
3 – The Oxbridge Tutorial Model
“What about students who need extra help? Who benefit from teaching methods outside of textbooks and workbooks?” asked Maria.
“At the opposite end of the efficiency spectrum lies the Oxbridge tutorial model,” explained Professor Bear, “which encourage small-group or one-on-one instruction where students present their work and engage in intensive dialogue with a tutor. This approach produces exceptional educational outcomes through dialectical learning and real-time feedback.
“While full implementation is prohibitively expensive for most institutions, strategic deployment in upper-level courses can provide transformative educational experiences. Recording and transcription technology now allows tutorial sessions to be analyzed against rubrics, providing documentation of student growth while maintaining the exploratory, formative nature of the interaction.”
“Could AI help make tutorials more affordable?” Malik asked.
“That’s being explored,” Provost Moreno replied. “AI can handle some of the preparation and follow-up, potentially freeing faculty time for more direct student engagement. But the human connection in tutorials is irreplaceable – it’s what makes them work.”
Pedagogical Innovation as Marketing Strategy
“Here’s the strategic insight many institutions miss: pedagogical innovation isn’t just about improving outcomes – it’s a powerful marketing differentiator,” stated Professor Bear. “In a market where prospective students increasingly question the value of traditional higher education, institutions that can demonstrate innovative, outcomes-focused teaching have a compelling story to tell. A university that can credibly claim ‘our students graduate career-ready through our evidence-based, AI-enhanced, mastery-focused curriculum’ has a significant competitive advantage over one that simply offers ‘quality education.’”
Maria perked up – marketing was her major, after all. “The same innovations that improve learning also improve recruitment?”
“Exactly. And they can reduce costs per student while improving outcomes. It’s one of the rare win-win-win scenarios in higher education.”
Reassessing Degree Programs: Aligning Education with Employment
“Not all degree programs produce equal employment outcomes, and universities must honestly confront this reality.” Provost Moreno pulled up data on her tablet. “The Indiana Commission for Higher Education recently announced the termination of more than 400 degree programs across the state’s public universities – 75 ended outright and 333 merged or consolidated. This is the future: programs that don’t produce employable graduates or serve clear educational purposes will be eliminated.”
“So, we continue to cut the liberal arts?” sighed Malik. His girlfriend was a history major – she was already worried about her program.
“This doesn’t mean abandoning the liberal arts or humanities,” Provost Moreno explained. “Research consistently shows that liberal arts graduates develop critical thinking, communication, and adaptability skills that serve them well over long careers. However, students in fields with limited direct employment pathways should be encouraged – and enabled – to combine their studies with more immediately marketable skills.”
“How do we do that?” asked Maria, turning over marketing ideas in her head.
The Dual Major Solution
“For students passionate about fields like philosophy, history, art history, or theater,” replied Professor Bear, “dual majors offer a path that honors their intellectual interests while improving employment prospects. A philosophy major with a minor in data analytics, or a theater major with a certificate in marketing, combines depth of humanistic education with the practical skills which employers value.”
Fostering the Arts Through Alternative Structures
“Rather than eliminating arts programs that may not lead directly to employment,” commented Provost Moreno, “universities should also consider restructuring them as certificate programs and minors that students pursue alongside more career-oriented majors. This preserves cultural education and artistic development while acknowledging economic realities.”
James, who had a secret passion for music, looked relieved. “I I could major in education and still study music seriously?”
“Absolutely. And you’d graduate with both pedagogical credentials and artistic training. Many K-12 schools desperately need teachers who can integrate arts into their curriculum.”
Job Task Analysis: Examining Every Function
“Beyond academic programs, universities must examine their administrative and operational functions with equal rigor. This is where my role gets uncomfortable,” Provost Moreno admitted. “Job task analysis means looking at every position, every department, every function and asking: ‘Is this necessary to accomplish our educational mission?’“
“What exactly does that process mean?” asked Maria. “Is it just looking for redundancy?”
“Job task analysis is a systematic process used to identify and determine the particular duties and requirements of each position and their relative importance to institutional goals,” replied Provost Moreno. “In a university context, this means examining not just what tasks are performed, but whether they need to be performed at all, and if so, by whom and how. The process should be led by Human Resources in collaboration with academic and administrative leadership. Key steps include:
- Establishing the organizational relevance of each role and connecting it clearly to institutional strategy
- Identifying inputs and outputs for each function
- Questioning whether tasks can be automated, consolidated, or eliminated
- Benchmarking against peer institutions
- Developing competency requirements for essential positions
“The University of Arizona’s experience is instructive. Facing a budget deficit exceeding $162 million, the university conducted comprehensive job task analysis and implemented hiring freezes, compensation freezes, and procurement restrictions – reducing the deficit to approximately $63 million. The key was targeted, strategic decisions rather than across-the-board cuts.
“EAB research confirms that across-the-board cuts are counterproductive: 67 percent of institutions that made large across-the-board cuts saw costs grow faster immediately after, and 45 percent had higher costs than if they’d done nothing at all within two to three years.”
Strategic Consolidation: The Unthinkable Becomes Necessary
Professor Bear exchanged a glance with Provost Moreno. “We need to discuss something that feels almost taboo in higher education circles.”
“University closures and mergers,” the Provost said bluntly. “It’s happening, and it needs to happen more proactively rather than in crisis mode.”
“The Pennsylvania State System of Higher Education (PASSHE) merged six universities into two regional entities, preserving student access while achieving cost efficiencies. Vermont consolidated multiple state colleges into Vermont State University, though not without significant political and community resistance. Georgia’s University System has consolidated nine smaller colleges over eight years, with Georgia Perimeter College – after merging with Georgia State University – improving its graduation rate from 6.5 percent to 15 percent,” explained Professor Bear.
“In states with multiple public universities serving overlapping regions, proactive consolidation can reduce overall state costs while actually improving student access and outcomes,” continued the Provost. “Rather than watching multiple institutions slowly decline, states can create stronger consolidated entities with broader program offerings, shared administrative functions, and sustainable enrollment bases.”
“But won’t communities fight against closing their local university?” Isara asked.
“Absolutely,” Provost Moreno replied. “Universities are woven into the fabric of their communities. But the alternative – watching them decline into irrelevance or close suddenly in crisis – is worse. The institutions that consolidate proactively, while they still have strength, get better outcomes than those that wait until they have no choice.
“Ricardo Azziz, who has led major consolidations and now heads the Center for Higher Education Mergers and Acquisitions, notes that ‘public institutions are complex structures. They’re influenced by politics. They’re influenced by elected officials.’ Success requires strong leadership, transparent communication, and stakeholder collaboration.”
The Urgency of Action: Funding the Transition
Professor Bear checked his watch. “We’re running long, but there’s one more critical point we need to make: Change in higher education requires investment. Redesigning courses for flipped instruction, implementing AI tutoring with proper guardrails, training faculty in new pedagogical approaches, conducting job task analysis, negotiating mergers – all of this costs money and time.
“The institutions that will thrive are those that undertake these transformations while they still have the financial resources to invest in change. Waiting until crisis mode means having neither the money nor the time to transform thoughtfully.”
“But faculty and staff are already overwhelmed,” Maria pointed out. “How do they take on transformation projects on top of their existing workloads?”
“That’s the challenge,” Provost Moreno acknowledged. “We can’t simply add transformation to existing responsibilities. We have to create capacity – through temporary hires, course releases, summer stipends, or reducing other demands. Institutions that aren’t willing to make these investments are choosing a slow decline.”
A Final Interlude: Maria’s Social Media Update
Maria had been suspiciously quiet for the past few minutes. Professor Bear noticed her phone’s screen reflected in her glasses.
“Maria, are you taking notes or live-tweeting our discussion?”
She had the grace to look slightly embarrassed. “Both? I’ve been posting key points with hashtags. #HigherEdCrisis #PerfectStorm #UniversityChallenges. Some of this is really important, and people should know about it.”
Provost Moreno laughed. “What’s our engagement like?”
“Actually, pretty good. Someone from the Chronicle of Higher Education just followed me. And a reporter from Inside Higher Ed asked if Professor Bear is really named Bear.”
“It’s a stage name,” Professor Bear deadpanned. “My legal name is Theodore Grizzly.”
Even Isara smiled at that one.
Charting the Path Forward: Solutions Ranked by Impact
Professor Bear stood at the whiteboard. “Let’s synthesize everything we’ve discussed into actionable strategies, ranked by their potential impact if properly implemented.”
- Address Affordability Directly
Affordability remains the single most significant barrier to college access and completion. Institutions must pursue aggressive scholarship programs, transparent pricing, income-share agreements, and partnerships with employers who will subsidize education for their workforce pipelines.
- Strengthen Career Outcomes and Employer Partnerships
Career services must evolve from peripheral support functions to core institutional priorities. This means embedded career coaching, mandatory internships, employer advisory boards influencing curriculum, and aggressive outcome tracking.
- Transform Pedagogy University-Wide
Adopt flipped classrooms, evidence-based textbook design, competency-based assessment, and mastery learning across programs – not as pilot projects but as institutional standards.
- Expand Nontraditional Student Populations
With 40 million Americans holding “some college, no credential,” and an aging workforce requiring continuous upskilling, nontraditional students represent enormous potential. Flexible scheduling, stackable credentials, and corporate partnerships can tap these markets.
- Deploy AI Strategically with Robust Guardrails
AI tutoring, adaptive learning, and automated assessment can improve outcomes and efficiency – but only with careful design. Guardrails must prevent cognitive offloading, ensure human oversight, and integrate AI into broader pedagogical frameworks.
- Emphasize What Makes Universities Unique
Face-to-face mentorship, research opportunities, campus community, interdisciplinary exploration, and development of the whole person – these are not available from MOOCs or corporate certificates. Universities must double down on these differentiators.
- Conduct Comprehensive Job Task Analysis
HR-led systematic review of every function across the institution, asking whether each task is necessary to accomplish the educational mission. Targeted optimization is far more effective than across-the-board cuts.
- Develop Stackable Credentials and Micro-Credentials
Break degree programs into modular components that can be earned incrementally and stacked toward larger credentials. This accommodates working adults and creates multiple revenue opportunities.
- Reform Governance Structures
Shared governance designed for stability must evolve to enable agility. This doesn’t mean abandoning faculty voice, but it does mean streamlining decision-making processes.
- Reassess Programs and Encourage Dual Majors
Honestly evaluate each program’s employment outcomes. Encourage students in fields with limited direct employment to pursue dual majors or certificates. Restructure arts and humanities programs as certificates and minors.
- Pursue Strategic Partnerships and Consolidation
Regional consortia, shared services, and strategic mergers can achieve economies of scale. States should proactively consider closing or merging institutions before crisis forces reactive decisions.
- Integrate AI Ethics and Literacy into Curricula
Every graduate should understand AI capabilities, limitations, and ethical implications. This positions graduates as AI-augmented professionals rather than AI-replaced workers.
- Develop Alternative Revenue Streams
Corporate training, lifelong learning programs, research commercialization, and facility monetization can diversify revenue beyond tuition and traditional funding sources.
Conclusion: Adaptation Without Losing Our Soul
The afternoon had stretched into evening. Outside Professor Bear’s window, the setting sun painted the autumn leaves in shades of gold and crimson.
“So,” James said quietly, “will universities survive?”
Professor Bear removed his glasses and cleaned them thoughtfully – a gesture his students had come to recognize as his “thinking deeply” tell.
“Some will. Many will look very different than they do today. Some won’t survive at all – not because they weren’t trying, but because they couldn’t adapt quickly enough to changes that are coming faster than any of us anticipated.”
Provost Moreno stood to leave. “The institutions that thrive will be those that embrace change while holding onto what makes higher education irreplaceable – the development of critical thinking, the pursuit of truth, the formation of character, and the connections between curious minds. We have to adapt without losing our soul.”
“That’s poetic,” Malik observed.
“I stole it from a fundraising brochure,” she admitted. “But it’s still true.”
As the students gathered their things to leave, James lingered.
“Professor Bear? Is it still worth it? Becoming a teacher, I mean. Given everything we discussed?”
Professor Bear placed a hand on James’s shoulder. “The world will always need teachers, James. The methods will change. The institutions will evolve. But the fundamental human need for guidance, mentorship, and education – that’s as permanent as anything in our rapidly changing world. The question isn’t whether teaching will matter. The question is whether we’ll have teachers who are prepared to adapt, to embrace new tools while preserving timeless wisdom, and to serve students whose needs we can barely imagine.”
“No pressure,” James said with a rare smile.
“None whatsoever,” Professor Bear agreed. “Now go enjoy what’s left of this beautiful evening. And James?”
“Yes?”
“Don’t let any AI write your assignments. You’ll thank me on exam day.”
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About the Author
Dr. Ron A. Rhoades, JD, CFP® is an Associate Professor of Finance and Co-Director of the Cerity Partners Financial Planning Program at Western Kentucky University’s Gordon Ford College of Business. He has and continues to develop his own textbooks that integrate evidence-based learning science with practical skill development.
This article is for educational purposes only. The characters depicted are fictional and any relation to real persons is solely incidental. Scenarios and references to real people or experiences are used solely to illustrate educational concepts. These examples may not apply to your individual circumstances. It should not be construed as financial, legal, tax, or investment advice, nor as a recommendation to implement any specific strategy, product, or investment.
Advisory services are offered through XYPN Sapphire and its various IAR brands under which it operates. XYPN Sapphire is an SEC registered investment adviser. For additional disclosure and privacy information, please visit XYPNSapphire.com/disclosures.
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